Star power still matters. But in May and June, the teams that pair elite talent with reliable depth, matchup versatility, and a physical identity are the ones that survive seven-game chess matches.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Standard
The defending champs set the bar. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams anchoring a switchable, unselfish group under Mark Daigneault, OKC brings continuity, length, and two-way balance that travels on the road and scales in the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets: Built for May Under David Adelman
Nikola Jokić remains the league’s ultimate problem-solver, and Denver’s roster is again engineered for matchup flexibility.
With David Adelman now at the helm and Jamal Murray healthy, the Nuggets can toggle big or small, keep shooting on the floor, and survive the non-Jokić minutes better than most.
That mix of star gravity and lineup optionality is why you’ll keep seeing them pop in models and in NBA score predictions.
Milwaukee Bucks: New Look Around Giannis
The Bucks pivoted hard: Brook Lopez departed and Milwaukee fortified the middle by adding Myles Turner, while moving on from Damian Lillard’s contract.
The upside is a cleaner defensive identity around Giannis Antetokounmpo with more rim protection and spacing. The question: do they have enough creation and reliable depth on the wing to navigate four rounds?
Los Angeles Lakers: Luka & LeBron’s Timeline
Luka Dončić and LeBron James give L.A. an absurd shot-creation floor. If the shooting holds and the defense stays connected around their stars, the ceiling is real—especially if new additions like DeAndre Ayton, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia pan out.
Health management and second-unit stability will determine whether this looks like a true title arc or another strong regular season with playoff variability, such as when they lost in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games.
New York Knicks — Bridges, Towns, Brunson, and a Defined Identity
New York’s core now blends Jalen Brunson’s control with Mikal Bridges’ two-way reliability and Karl-Anthony Towns’ spacing size.
Add OG Anunoby’s defense and Tom Thibodeau’s structure, and the Knicks have the ingredients to grind out series and weaponize half-court execution late.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Two-Way Depth and Cohesion
Evan Mobley’s defensive range and Donovan Mitchell’s late-game shotmaking headline a roster that’s deeper and more balanced on the wing.
If the offense avoids stagnation and the rotation irons out by spring, Cleveland has the profile of a team that can win multiple styles of series.
Indiana Pacers: Depth Keeps Them Afloat
Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles rehab changes the calculus, but Indiana still runs 10 deep with shooting, size, and pace.
Andrew Nembhard’s growth, versatile forwards, and lineups that keep the floor spaced give the Pacers a puncher’s chance in any matchup—and a higher ceiling if Haliburton returns late.
Additionally, Pascal Siakam brings experience and can help right the ship like he did with the post-Kawhi Toronto Raptors. Bennedict Mathurin looks like a prime Most Improved Player candidate as well.
LA Clippers: Veteran Depth, Health Caveat
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden headline a roster that finally looks reinforced for the marathon. Brook Lopez adds rim protection and spacing, while added veterans stabilize the second unit, including additions such as Bradley Beal.
If the top group stays on the floor, L.A. has the size, smarts, and half-court control to make a real run. If not, they’re back in the volatility bucket.
Orlando Magic: Young Core Ready to Jump
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner give Orlando a two-way star foundation, and the rotation now has more shooting and handling to support them, including the addition of Desmond Bane via trade from the Memphis Grizzlies.
They defend, they rebound, and they’re built to win the possession game, which is always a playoff tiebreaker.
San Antonio Spurs: The Wembanyama Variable
Victor Wembanyama bends game plans all by himself. Add steady guard play and incremental spacing gains, and San Antonio becomes the team no favorite wants to see in a 2-7 or 3-6 matchup.
Winning it all might be a year early, but a leap into the second round (or beyond) is on the table. As of right now, Wemby is looking like an MVP candidate and someone who can make their mark early.
Houston Rockets: Ceiling Play with Durant
Kevin Durant’s shot-making elevates Houston’s half-court offense and late-clock viability. The defensive glass, point-of-attack resistance, and how the younger core fits around KD will decide whether this is a tough out or a genuine dark horse.
Boston Celtics: Managing the Tatum Timeline
With Jayson Tatum rehabbing an Achilles tear, Boston’s margin shrinks. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White keep the perimeter solid, but replacing Tatum’s usage and late-game gravity for an entire season is a massive ask.
If he’s back by spring—and effective—that’s a different conversation; until then, Boston profiles as a tough playoff team more than a favorite.
Miami Heat & Memphis Grizzlies: Lurkers with Playoff Traits
Both clubs can still muddy the game: Miami with scheme, discipline, and late-game execution; Memphis with size, rebounding, and wing defense.
In a single series they’re dangerous; across four series, depth and offense may cap the ceiling—likely landing them in the play-in or lower-seed mix.
The Heat are still underrated with Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, and others; and you can't count out the Grizzlies when they have Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, and others.
Phoenix Suns: Re-Tooling Around Booker
Phoenix pivoted into a longer build around Devin Booker, adding young talent but shedding veteran star heft, such as trading Kevin Durant to the Rockets and receiving Jalen Green in return.
The arrow can point up long-term, but in the 2025–26 title conversation, they’re more spoiler than contender.
Bottom Line
The safest tier still pairs elite stars with adaptable depth: Thunder, Nuggets, Bucks, plus surging East threats in the Knicks and Cavaliers, and the recalibrated Lakers.
The next wave—Clippers, Pacers, Magic, Spurs, Rockets—has clear paths up the board if health and fit break right. Don't forget about others teams like the 76ers, Timberwolves, Knicks, and more. The East is more wide open this season.
The bracket will reward the rosters that win the glass, defend without fouling, survive non-star minutes, and keep shooting on the floor when the screws tighten.
